Happy new water year! Today marks the first day of the new water year<\/a>, which runs from October 1 of each year through September 30 of the next. Water managers count time using the water year because after Oct. 1, precipitation no longer matters so much for this year\u2019s crops \u2013 instead, most of it will be stored in reservoirs and snowpacks and be used during next year\u2019s growing season.<\/span><\/p>\n

Like the calendar year New Year\u2019s Day, the start of the new water year represents a fresh start and hope that next year can be better than the last. And this last water year was bad \u2013 by some measures, it was the worst drought in history. So let\u2019s take stock of where we stand up here in Montana and how things look for the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

Currently, the entire state of Montana is still in severe drought or worse, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor<\/a>, and about two-thirds of the state is in “extreme” or “exceptional” drought. This has been especially bad for dryland agriculture \u2013 farming and ranching that isn\u2019t irrigated. Precipitation has been especially scarce in the major agricultural areas of Montana, with many weather stations<\/a> reporting total water-year precipitation at less than 50% of normal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Irrigators may have been more fortunate, though. The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service shows that most major watersheds<\/a> feeding Montana have had precipitation between 80 and 100% of normal. In other words, we have had rain and snow in the mountains, so if you have access to water in the rivers and reservoirs, you might have been all right this year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Crop production has taken a nosedive. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Services shows that crop yields<\/a> for all major crops in Montana are around half of what they were in 2020. But what\u2019s interesting is that prices are way up<\/a>. Because the drought hit much of the country, not just Montana, yields everywhere are down. And \u2013 think back to Econ 101 for a second \u2013 when supply shifts inward but demand doesn\u2019t change, prices rise.<\/span><\/p>\n

The result is that higher prices have compensated for lower yields, and crop revenues haven\u2019t actually changed very much. The graph here shows the total value of production for the six biggest crops in Montana. Spring wheat and barley revenues are down somewhat, but hay and winter wheat are pretty steady. (These are my own calculations using the two NASS reports linked in the previous paragraph.)<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Now, not all producers may have been able to take advantage of the price increases, for example if they locked in contract prices earlier. But high rates of participation<\/a> in crop insurance and expanded access to federal disaster assistance<\/span><\/a> have provided extra help. Even though it\u2019s been a tough year, most farmers have likely been OK financially.<\/span><\/p>\n

What\u2019s the outlook like for the new water year? Montana\u2019s reservoirs look like they\u2019re in pretty good shape, unlike other parts of the west, like California and Oregon. The NRCS shows that although some reservoirs are a little low, many are at or exceeding<\/a> 100% of normal for this point in the year. This \u201ccarryover\u201d storage should provide something of a backstop for irrigators and municipalities moving into the new water year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Soil moisture, on the other hand, is in bad shape. The National Weather Service shows that most of Montana is in the 10 percent of worst years<\/a> for soil moisture in history, and some parts are in the 1 percent worst ever. Soil moisture in the deeper root zone<\/a> is not nearly as disastrous as it seems at the surface, according to data from NASA\u2019s GRACE satellites, but it\u2019s not doing great either. Soil moisture can recover if we get more rain this fall, but the huge deficit means it will take more moisture to recover than usual.<\/span><\/p>\n

This water year was bad, but unfortunately, we can expect to see droughts get worse in the coming decades, as the Montana Climate Assessment tells us<\/a>. One response in the right direction may be the recently-announced effort to update<\/a> the Montana Drought Management Plan. It\u2019s only going to become more important to prioritize investments and research that can improve adaptation and drought resilience. It\u2019s also equally important to reduce the ultimate drivers of the changes we\u2019re seeing \u2013 emissions of greenhouse gases.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Happy new water year! Today marks the first day of the new water year, which runs from October 1 of each year through September 30 of the next. Water managers count time using the water year because after Oct. 1, precipitation no longer matters so much for this year\u2019s crops \u2013 instead, most of it<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":6507,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_active":false,"_exactmetrics_sitenote_note":"","_exactmetrics_sitenote_category":0},"categories":[25,195,61],"tags":[],"coauthors":[197],"yoast_head":"\n