Robots are entering many industries, including healthcare, manufacturing, transportation, and agriculture, among others. As new technologies facilitate the automation of a growing number of tasks, the question looms whether machines will displace workers.
This concept is not new. People have worried about technological unemployment for centuries. There is recent evidence that the introduction of robots caused employment and wages to decrease within industries experiencing greatest rise in robotic advances (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2017; Benmelech and Zator, 2022; Borjas and Freeman, 2019; Faber, Sarto, and Tabellini, 2022). Nevertheless, general equilibrium effects of technology adoption on employment and wages over time are difficult to predict. Increased productivity associated with robotic technologies is expected to simultaneously raise the demand for workers in higher skilled (and typically higher wage) jobs. While employment in one industry might decline, employment in another up- or downstream industry might rise. One of the few studies that attempts to measure general equilibrium effects of robotization finds that one additional robot (defined in this study as a fully autonomous machine that is automatically controlled, reprogrammable, and multipurpose) per thousand workers decreased the employment-to-population ratio by 0.2 percentage points and average wages by 0.42% from 1993-2007 (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2020). This amounted to a loss of only 400,000 jobs in the United States in total from 1993-2007. There are few fully autonomous robotic technologies, and negative effects of robotization on employment and wages may dissipate over the long-term as the economy adjusts and people continue to innovate.
Economics shows that the conditions that lead to technology adoption matter. If mechanized technologies are exogenously introduced (e.g. randomly developed and placed in an industry), workers will be displaced. However, when rising wages and worker scarcity generate demand for new automated technologies, mechanization can enhance employee outcomes by raising productivity and helping firms remain in operation (Charlton, Hill, and Taylor, 2022).
Currently, rising farm wages and reduced availability of seasonal farm workers is increasing the demand for advanced robotic technologies in agriculture. Startup companies like Advanced Farm are developing technologies to robotically harvest strawberries and apples, among other technologies.[1] Agricultural engineers at major universities are also developing and exploring the use of robotics in new frontiers. Among these, Montana State University is investing in research and development of precision agriculture technologies.[2]
Development of robotic technologies for commercial farms is a long and challenging process. For example, apple production in Washington State depends largely on recruitment of nonimmigrant guest workers through the H-2A visa program, but growers are concerned that they will not always be able to recruit sufficient H-2A workers. Engineers are currently creating prototypes of robots to prune trees, pick apples, and sort apples in the field. However, these technologies involve important tradeoffs. Human hands are efficient and dexterous. Small losses in picking efficiency or losses from increased bruising multiply quickly and lead to large revenue losses. Use of robots in fruit harvesting will only be economically viable if labor costs continue to rise and technologies improve.
Robotic fruit harvesters are expected to require operators who manage one or more robots in the field. These jobs will likely be safer and more comfortable than existing jobs and offer better wages. In an industry where workers are already scarce, few if any workers will be displaced. For those who continue working in agriculture, technological advances, including robotics, will often be accompanied by opportunities to acquire more advanced technological skills and receive better wages.
Works Cited
Acemoglu, D. and P. Restrepo. 2018. The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment. American Economic Review. 108(6): 1488-1542.
Acemoglu, D. and P. Restrepo. 2020. Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets. Journal of Political Economy. 128(6): 2188-2244.
Benmelech, E. and M. Zator. 2022. Robots and Firm Investment. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 29676
Borjas, G. and R.B. Freeman. 2019. From Immigrants to Robots: The Changing Locus of Substitutes for Workers. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 25438.
Charlton, D., Hill, A.E. & Taylor, J.E. 2022. Automation and social impacts: winners and losers. Background paper for The State of Food and Agriculture 2022. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Working Paper 22-09. Rome, FAO.
https://doi.org/10.4060/cc2610en
Faber, M., A.P. Sarto, and M. Tabellini. 2022. Local Shocks and Internal Migration: The Disparate Effects of Robots and Chinese Imports in the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 30048.
