The American Agricultural Economics Association held its annual conference in Atlanta last week. I attended one session that included several studies related to NAFTA and the USMCA, and I was struck by how much the value of agricultural imports from Mexico has risen since the implementation of NAFTA in 1994. Increasing imports of fresh fruits and vegetables, which are high value crops, and beer are largely responsible for this rise (see Figure 1).
As trade deals are renegotiated, it is important to remember that Mexico is an important trading partner in U.S. agriculture. According to a recent USDA report, Mexico is the United States’ largest agricultural trading partner in terms of combined exports and imports. Mexico received 13.6 percent of U.S. agricultural exports in 2018 and supplied 20.1 percent of U.S. agricultural imports.
Agricultural exports to Mexico have risen steadily since the implementation of NAFTA (see Figure 2). Figure 3 shows that much of the growth in agricultural exports to Mexico can be attributed to corn exports, but Mexico also provides a critical export market for Montana agricultural producers. Figure 3 shows that the value of beef exports to Mexico grew steadily through the 1990s, peaked in 2006, and have remained relatively steady in the subsequent years. The value of wheat exports to Mexico peaked in 2012 and have declined somewhat since then.
Figure 4 shows the relative shares of various agricultural products exported to Mexico in 2018. Corn and soybeans are a large share of the value of agricultural exports. Dairy, pork, beef, and poultry also make up a large share of the exports to Mexico. These figures suggest that future trade with Mexico will remain an important interest to agricultural producers in the Northern Great Plains.
Figures created from data collected by the United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service.